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Forecast of PV installations in 2021
In terms of module price dynamics, 2021 is not only an exceptional year but is likely to be the first year in modern PV history that China's PV demand growth will be in line with the global average.In previous years, the growth of the global PV market evolved based on the dynamic changes between China and other markets. When China is growing strongly, other markets are growing less, and vice versa -- a pattern closely linked to supply chains.In 2021, we expect growth in most markets. However, this distributed growth will not eliminate the dominance of mainland China and the United States in global demand by adding more than half of the world's PV capacity. The other eight of the world's 10 largest markets together will also account for just 25 percent of global demand, compared with 40 percent in 2019. A further 10 percent are expected to come from another 10 markets. This means that we are seeing a parallel integration and differentiation. China and the United States continue to consolidate their positions, while more and smaller markets take up the rest of the demand. In other words, by 2021, we expect 55 markets to generate between 100MW and 999MW per year, compared with 37 in 2019.
We don't expect any major changes in those top PV markets. In 2020, India was the solar market most affected by the Covid-19 epidemic, with installations falling by more than half compared to 2019. Developers now have to do what they can to complete these delayed solar PV projects by 2021, which could make India the world's third-largest market again -- unless it is hampered by continued high module prices. Among the other leading PV markets, we expect Australia to overtake Japan and Spain to overtake Germany again. We also believe that France will overtake South Korea, which is in 10th place. In 2021, we will be keeping a close eye on emerging solar markets such as Colombia, Peru, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Zambia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia. Tendering will continue to be the main driver of the emerging solar market, but there will also be increasing agreement activity and increased installed capacity for commercial and industrial solar PV.